{"id":2792,"date":"2023-07-12T16:53:15","date_gmt":"2023-07-12T13:53:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yillik.kizilayakademi.org.tr\/?p=2792"},"modified":"2024-05-15T12:50:06","modified_gmt":"2024-05-15T09:50:06","slug":"tahil-koridoru-ve-onemi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/tahil-koridoru-ve-onemi\/","title":{"rendered":"Tah\u0131l Koridoru ve \u00d6nemi"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

G\u0131da ve enerji ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok alan\u0131 etkileyen, \u015eubat 2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgaliyle ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00fcnyada \u015fimdiye kadar e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f ekonomik, sosyal ve politik de\u011fi\u015fimler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle tah\u0131l krizi ve bu krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olan Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em> veya bilinen ad\u0131yla Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em> uluslararas\u0131 mecrada 2022\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli giri\u015fimi olmu\u015ftur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u0131day\u0131 tek \u00fcreten sekt\u00f6r tar\u0131md\u0131r ve teknoloji ne kadar geli\u015firse geli\u015fsin ba\u015fka bir sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn do\u011fal yollarla g\u0131day\u0131 \u00fcretmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, insanlar\u0131n ya\u015famas\u0131 i\u00e7in zorunlu g\u0131day\u0131 \u00fcreten bir alan olarak kriz ve sava\u015f d\u00f6nemleri de d\u00e2hil \u00fcretime devam etmesi gerekir. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin t\u00fcm arz zinciri boyunca \u00fcreticiden t\u00fcketiciye kadar aksaks\u0131z ve makul fiyatla ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 da zorunluluktur. Son y\u0131llarda ya\u015fanan \u00e7oklu krizler (iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, pandemi, Suriye krizi gibi b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar vb.) hem \u00fcreticilerden t\u00fcketiciye g\u0131da ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda aksakl\u0131klara neden olmu\u015f hem de g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle g\u0131da g\u00fcvencesi gibi sorunlar\u0131 da art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6yle ki Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 G\u0131da Krizi K\u00fcresel Raporu<\/em>\u2019na g\u00f6re 2021\u2019de 190 milyondan fazla ki\u015finin g\u0131da g\u00fcvencesinden yoksun oldu\u011fu ve acil yard\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu bildirilmi\u015ftir. D\u00fcnyada rekor seviyeler olan bu de\u011ferlerin 2022\u2019de \u00f6zellikle Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n etkileriyle birlikte daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edilmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 Bunun yan\u0131nda Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n D\u00fcnya G\u0131da Program\u0131n\u0131n (WFP) yoksul \u00fclkelere ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi g\u0131da yard\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ana tedarik\u00e7ileri olmalar\u0131 nedeniyle de g\u0131da g\u00fcvencesizli\u011fi riskinin artaca\u011f\u0131 bildirilmi\u015ftir.<\/a>1<\/a><\/sup> <\/a>2<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n temel tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde ve girdi ham maddelerinde d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclke konumunda olmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sava\u015f, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi 2022\u2019de zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00fcnyada 2020\u2019de ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011finin (ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi, ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi ya\u011f\u0131 ve k\u00fcspesi) %75\u2019i, bu\u011fday\u0131n %27\u2019si, arpan\u0131n %19\u2019u, m\u0131s\u0131r\u0131n %14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn ihracat\u0131 Rusya ve Ukrayna taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir (Grafik 1). Bu nedenle sava\u015f d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel g\u0131da, g\u00fcbre ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemi\u015ftir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 1. K\u00fcresel \u0130hracatta Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Pay\u0131\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Rusya ve Ukrayna, temel tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde son on y\u0131lda ekim alanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmi\u015f, \u00fcretim ve verimlerini art\u0131rarak d\u00fcnya tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin bu\u011fday \u00fcretimlerini \u00f6nemli d\u00fczeyde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclke konumuna gelmi\u015ftir.\u00a0 Rusya\u2019da 2000\u2019de 34 milyon ton bu\u011fday \u00fcretimini 2020\u2019de 84 milyon tona, Ukrayna\u2019da ise 10 milyon tondan 25 milyon tona y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Toplamda 44 milyon tondan 111 milyon tona ula\u015fan \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihracat\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemi\u015f; Rusya\u2019dan baz\u0131 y\u0131llar 60 milyon tona, Ukrayna\u2019dan 25 milyon tona varan ihracat d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda al\u0131c\u0131 bulmu\u015ftur (Grafik 2).<\/a>3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 2. Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Bu\u011fday \u00dcretim ve \u0130hracat\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Di\u011fer yandan temel g\u0131daya eri\u015fim, \u00f6zellikle ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemlidir. Bir\u00e7ok ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclke bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te g\u0131dada Ukrayna ve Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmi\u015ftir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda M\u0131s\u0131r, Tunus, Libya, Nijerya, Yemen, Katar, Banglade\u015f gibi Kuzey Afrika, Orta Do\u011fu ve Asya \u00fclkeleri tah\u0131l ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019dan ithal etmektedir. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck bu\u011fday ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan M\u0131s\u0131r, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %61\u2019ini Rusya, %24\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc Ukrayna\u2019dan temin etmektedir. L\u00fcbnan, Tunus ve Yemen yapt\u0131klar\u0131 bu\u011fday ithalat\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla %68, %52 ve %49\u2019unu bu iki \u00fclkeden temin etmekte, yine ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011finde ise M\u0131s\u0131r %10, Katar %82, Tunus %66, L\u00fcbnan %35 oran\u0131nda ithalatta bu iki \u00fclkeye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r (Grafik 3).<\/a>4<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 3. Baz\u0131 \u00dclkelerin Bu\u011fday ve Ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi \u0130thalat\u0131nda Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Pay\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bu nedenle \u015eubat 2022\u2019de ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, bu \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki paylar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6nemli etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmi\u015ftir. Uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 baz\u0131 az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde a\u00e7l\u0131k tehdidi alt\u0131nda bulunan n\u00fcfusun artmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli risk oldu\u011fu da duyurulmu\u015ftur. Pandemi, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi gibi nedenlerle zaten var olan g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f, mevcut riskleri de art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 Tah\u0131l Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda bu\u011fday fiyat\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgaliyle birlikte y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Bu\u011fday fiyat\u0131nda Ocak 2022 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u0131l i\u00e7inde %40\u2019a varan art\u0131\u015flar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir (Grafik 4 ).<\/a>5<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 4. K\u00fcresel Piyasalarda Bu\u011fday Fiyat Endeksi<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em>\u2019n\u0131n Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00fcresel ihracatta ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011finde ihracat lideri, arpada \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc, m\u0131s\u0131rda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc, bu\u011fdayda be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer alarak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck tah\u0131l ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olan Ukrayna, normal y\u0131llarda her y\u0131l k\u00fcresel pazara yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 milyon ton tah\u0131l tedarik etmektedir. Ancak 2022 \u015eubat sonlar\u0131nda Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ile \u00fcr\u00fcnler silolarda kalm\u0131\u015f, Ukrayna limanlar\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde tah\u0131l\u0131 sevk etmek veya g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde kara yolunu kullanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu durum d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda temel g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda ilave bir art\u0131\u015fa neden olmu\u015ftur. Ayn\u0131 zamanda g\u00fcbre ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemi\u015ftir. BM, T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya ve Ukrayna 22 Temmuz 2022\u2019de \u0130stanbul\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen t\u00f6renle \u201cKaradeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi\u201dni imzalayarak Ukrayna\u2019dan tah\u0131l, di\u011fer g\u0131da maddeleri ve amonyak d\u00e2hil g\u00fcbre ihracat\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli Ukrayna liman\u0131ndan (\u00c7ornomorsk, Odessa, Yujn\u0131y\/ Pivdennyi) g\u00fcvenli bir deniz yolu koridoru yoluyla yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na imk\u00e2n sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/a>6<\/a><\/sup> <\/a>7<\/a><\/sup> Anla\u015fman\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn piyasalarda fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesi olumlu bir i\u015faret olarak kabul edilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anla\u015fmay\u0131 uygulamak i\u00e7in \u0130stanbul\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye, Ukrayna, Rusya Federasyonu ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin \u00fcst d\u00fczey temsilcilerden olu\u015fan M\u00fc\u015fterek Koordinasyon Merkezi (MKM) kurulmu\u015ftur. Ukrayna limanlar\u0131ndan A\u011fustos 2022\u2019de yola \u00e7\u0131kan ilk gemiden itibaren ba\u015far\u0131yla gemi seferleri devam etmi\u015ftir. Ekim sonunda ise Rusya taraf\u0131ndan ask\u0131ya al\u0131nan anla\u015fma, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin giri\u015fimiyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede tekrar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/a>8<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anla\u015fman\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131ndan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f ay s\u00fcreyle ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ise \u015fu \u015fekildedir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130lk geminin hareket etti\u011fi 1 A\u011fustos\u2019tan y\u0131l sonuna (27 Aral\u0131k 2022) kadar Ukrayna limanlar\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 15,5 milyon ton \u00fcr\u00fcn sevk edilmi\u015ftir. Sevk edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 %44 ile m\u0131s\u0131r, %29 ile bu\u011fday, %6 ile ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (Grafik 5).<\/a>9<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 5. Tah\u0131l Koridoru\u2019ndan En \u00c7ok Sevk Edilen \u00dcr\u00fcnler ve Paylar\u0131\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tah\u0131l Koridoru\u2019ndan sevk edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 limanlardaki \u00fclkelerin gelir gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda ise en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 y\u00fcksek gelirli \u00fclkeler alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Toplam sevkiyat\u0131n %44\u2019\u00fc \u0130spanya, Hollanda, \u0130talya, Kore Cumhuriyeti, Romanya, Almanya, Fransa, Yunanistan, \u0130rlanda ve \u0130srail gibi y\u00fcksek gelir grubundaki \u00fclkelerin limanlar\u0131na yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130kinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 %35 ile T\u00fcrkiye, \u00c7in ve Bulgaristan gibi \u00fcst-orta gelirli \u00fclkeler alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye 3 milyon tonu a\u015fan sevkiyat\u0131yla %50\u2019den fazla oranla bu grup i\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay ise sadece %3 olmu\u015ftur. Alt-orta gelir grubunda bulunan \u00fclkeler ise %18 pay alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (Grafik 6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 6. Tah\u0131l Koridoru\u2019nda \u00dcr\u00fcnlerin Sevk Edildi\u011fi \u00dclkelerin Gelir Gruplar\u0131na G\u00f6re Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2022 i\u00e7inde 15,5 milyon ton sevkiyat\u0131 yap\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin sadece 530 bin tonu Afganistan, Etiyopya, Somali, Sudan ve Yemen\u2019den olu\u015fan en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerin limanlar\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu \u00fclkelere sevk edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin tamam\u0131n\u0131 bu\u011fday olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur (Grafik 7).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grafik 7. Tah\u0131l Koridoru\u2019nda En D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Gelir Grubundaki \u00dclkelerin Paylar\u0131\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alt-orta gelir grubunda yer alan \u00fclkeler ise 3,2 milyon ton \u00fcr\u00fcn alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu grupta yer alan \u00fclkelerden en fazla \u00fcr\u00fcn sevk edilen \u00fclkeler M\u0131s\u0131r, Cibuti ve Banglade\u015f\u2019tir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orta ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay toplam i\u00e7inde %21 olsa da BM taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcksek ve \u00fcst-orta gelirli \u00fclkelere sevk edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn D\u00fcnya G\u0131da Program\u0131 (WFP) \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki \u00fcr\u00fcnler oldu\u011fu bildirilmektedir. BM taraf\u0131ndan kiralanan d\u00f6rt gemi, insani g\u0131da yard\u0131m\u0131 olarak WFP \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Afrika \u00fclkeleri, Yemen ve Afganistan\u2019daki insani yard\u0131mlar\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in sat\u0131n al\u0131nan bu\u011fday\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de T\u00fcrkiye limanlar\u0131na sevk edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdir. WFP taraf\u0131ndan kiralanan ilk gemi, Afrika\u2019daki kurakl\u0131kla m\u00fccadeleyi desteklemek i\u00e7in 30 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Cibuti\u2019ye demirlemi\u015f, 37.500 ton bu\u011fday y\u00fckl\u00fc ikinci bir BM gemisi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye bu\u011fday\u0131n \u00f6\u011f\u00fct\u00fclerek un h\u00e2line gelmi\u015f \u015fekliyle ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu un daha sonra WFP\u2019nin insani yard\u0131m deste\u011fi kapsam\u0131nda Yemen\u2019e g\u00f6nderilmi\u015ftir. WFP taraf\u0131ndan kiralanan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc gemiler de insani yard\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131na bu\u011fday tedarik etmektedir.<\/a>10<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Di\u011fer yandan Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n 2022 Ocak-A\u011fustos d\u00f6nemi bu\u011fday ihracat\u0131 4,1 milyon ton olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu de\u011fer bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 aylar\u0131nda (8,7 milyon ton) yap\u0131lan ihracat\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 kadard\u0131r.<\/a>3<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrayna\u2019da sava\u015f nedeniyle 2023\u2019te ekim alanlar\u0131n\u0131n bu\u011fdayda %29, arpada %35, m\u0131s\u0131rda %14, ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011finde %35 oranda azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. Bu daralman\u0131n Ukrayna \u00fcretimlerini bu\u011fdayda %38, arpada %35, m\u0131s\u0131rda %8 ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011finde %43 oran\u0131nda azaltaca\u011f\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/a>11<\/a><\/sup> Tah\u0131l koridorunun a\u00e7\u0131k tutulmas\u0131, hem 2022 \u00fcr\u00fcnleri i\u00e7in hem de 2023\u2019te hasat edilecek \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesine hizmet edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sonu\u00e7 <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

COVID-19 pandemisi, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar (Suriye krizi vb.), g\u00f6\u00e7ler ve son olarak da \u015eubat 2022\u2019den itibaren s\u00fcregelen Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel g\u0131da piyasalar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikliklere neden olmu\u015ftur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin giri\u015fimleriyle imzalanan Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em> ile Ukrayna\u2019dan deniz yoluyla g\u00fcvenli sevkiyat yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f, bu yolla ticaretin serbestle\u015fmesinin \u00f6nemli etkileri olmu\u015ftur.<\/a>12<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunlardan ilki geli\u015fmekte olan ve az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde n\u00fcfusun yetersiz beslenme ve a\u00e7l\u0131k riskini azaltmas\u0131, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 engellemesidir. Ta\u015f\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcnler, \u00f6zellikle bu\u011fday d\u00fcnyadaki pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin temel g\u0131da maddesidir. Geli\u015fmekte olan ve az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde veya t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7inde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli n\u00fcfus i\u00e7in ekmek ve di\u011fer unlu mamuller g\u00fcnl\u00fck g\u0131da t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7inde en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 alan \u00fcr\u00fcn grubudur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc di\u011fer g\u0131da maddelerine g\u00f6re fiyat\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr ve yemek k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn vazge\u00e7ilmez par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em>\u2019n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte ve az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde n\u00fcfusun g\u0131da ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 olarak tahmin edilen etkisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re bunun be\u015f ayl\u0131k s\u00fcrede kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Tah\u0131l koridoru a\u00e7\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ihracattaki pay\u0131 nedeniyle d\u00fcnya genelinde tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri arz\u0131 daralmas\u0131, g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fckselmesine neden olabilecekti. Sadece bu\u011fday, arpa, m\u0131s\u0131r, ay\u00e7i\u00e7e\u011fi gibi bitkisel \u00fcr\u00fcnler de\u011fil, et, s\u00fct, yumurta gibi hayvansal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131 da daha y\u00fcksek seyredecek, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 \u00fclkeler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli gruplarda yetersiz beslenme ve a\u00e7l\u0131k riski artabilecekti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131<\/em>\u2019n\u0131n ikinci etkisi yeni bir g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sosyal sorunlar\u0131 engellemesidir. Tah\u0131l sevkiyat\u0131yla birlikte Ukrayna \u00e7ift\u00e7ilerinin gelir elde etmesi ve \u00fcretimi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmeleri sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.  Tar\u0131msal \u00fcretim, d\u00fcnya genelinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck aile \u00e7iftliklerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmektedir. Tek ge\u00e7im kayna\u011f\u0131 tar\u0131m olan \u00e7ift\u00e7iler, \u00fcr\u00fcnleri sat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda \u00fcretimden vazge\u00e7ebilir, bu da ba\u015fta ekonomik sorunlar olmak \u00fczere yeni bir g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 gibi pek \u00e7ok sosyal soruna da neden olabilir. Bu t\u00fcr sorunlar\u0131n ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da tah\u0131l koridorunun \u00f6nemi b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc etkisi ise d\u00fcnya genelinde gelecek \u00fcretim d\u00f6nemlerinde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulacak kimyasal g\u00fcbrenin teminidir. D\u00fcnyada kimyasal g\u00fcbre ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %14\u2019\u00fc Rusya taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmektedir. Rusya d\u00fcnyada azotlu g\u00fcbre ihracat\u0131nda birinci, potasyum ve fosforlu g\u00fcbre ihracat\u0131nda ise ikinci s\u0131radad\u0131r. Son y\u0131llarda art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimindeki g\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131, e\u011fer Rusya\u2019dan sevkiyat yap\u0131lamazsa daha da y\u00fckselecektir. \u00a0 K\u00fcresel g\u00fcbre pazar\u0131ndaki bozulma, bitkisel \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin verimi ve \u00e7ift\u00e7i geliri \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck etkilere neden olacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle Tah\u0131l Koridoru\u2019nun Rusya\u2019dan g\u00fcbrenin ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na da hizmet etmesi \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan g\u00fcbrenin temini, normal \u015fartlarda elde edilen verimin sa\u011flanmas\u0131, maliyetin y\u00fckselmemesi dolas\u0131yla g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmemesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1. <\/strong>FAO. (2021). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World <\/em>https:\/\/www. fao.org\/publications\/sofi\/2021\/en\/
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. <\/strong>Giray, H. (2022). Bir bu\u011fday boyu yol gidemeyi\u015f \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc: Tah\u0131l Koridoru. Tarla Sera <\/em>s.84-89.
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. <\/strong>FAO. (2022). Food and agriculture data <\/em>https:\/\/www.fao.org\/faostat\/en\/#home
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. <\/strong>UNCOMTRADE. (2022). Welcome to the new and enhanced Comtrade <\/em>https:\/\/ comtrade.un.org\/
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. <\/strong>IGC. (2022). Export Prices <\/em>https:\/\/www.igc.int\/en\/markets\/marketinfo-prices.aspx
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. <\/strong>UN. (2022). Black sea grain initiative <\/em>https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/black-sea-grain-initiative
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. <\/strong>EU. (2022). Infographic – How the Russian invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated the global food crisis <\/em>https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/infographics\/ how-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-has-further-aggravated-the-global-food-crisis\/
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. <\/strong>Dellal, \u0130. (2022). Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 3 \u00f6nemli etkisi <\/em>https:\/\/www. aa.com.tr\/tr\/analiz\/tahil-koridoru-anlasmasinin-3-onemli-etkisi\/2753756
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. <\/strong>UN. (2022). Vessel Movements <\/em>https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/black-sea-grain-initiative\/vessel-movements
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

10. <\/strong>UN. (2022). Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi: Nedir ve neden d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir? <\/em>https:\/\/turkiye.un.org\/tr\/201845-karadeniz-tahil-girisimi-nedir-ve-neden-dunya-icin-onemlidir
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

11. <\/strong>USDA. (2022). Foreign Agricultural Service<\/em>. https:\/\/www.fas.usda.gov\/
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

12. <\/strong>Dellal, \u0130. (2022). Tah\u0131l koridoru anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n 3 \u00f6nemli etkisi <\/em>https:\/\/www.aa.com. tr\/tr\/analiz\/tahil-koridoru-anlasmasinin-3-onemli-etkisi\/2681015
At\u0131f\u00a0\u2191<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u0131da ve enerji ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok alan\u0131 etkileyen, \u015eubat 2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgaliyle ba\u015flayan Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 d\u00fcnyada \u015fimdiye kadar e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f ekonomik, sosyal ve politik de\u011fi\u015fimler yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle tah\u0131l krizi ve bu krize \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olan Karadeniz Tah\u0131l Giri\u015fimi Anla\u015fmas\u0131 veya bilinen ad\u0131yla Tah\u0131l Koridoru Anla\u015fmas\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 mecrada 2022\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli giri\u015fimi olmu\u015ftur. …<\/p>\n

Devam\u0131 \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-akademik-degerlendirmeler","years-60","institution-ankara-universitesi"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2792\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kizilayakademi.org.tr\/yillik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}